Why HDB Sellers Can’t Afford to Wait Until 2026

SHARE THIS ARTICLE

5/5 - (1 vote)

Why HDB Sellers Can’t Afford to Wait Until 2026

When the news broke that the 15-month wait-out rule may soon be removed, many HDB owners felt a wave of relief.

“Finally, more condo downgraders can buy my flat. That means prices will go up again, right?”

It sounds like good news. But dig a little deeper, and the same reports also say this:

HDB will flood the market with 50,000 new BTO launches between 2025 and 2027.
Thousands of Covid-delayed BTOs that were completed in 2021 and 2022 will hit their 5-year MOP around 2026–2027.

BusinessTimes : May 28, 2025

So yes, there may be more downgraders entering the market. But you’ll also be competing with more flats than ever before.

That is the real pressure HDB owners need to pay attention to.

The Real Pressure Isn’t Policy. It’s Supply.

If you remember the BTOs delayed during Covid, they were finally handed over in 2021 and 2022. Fast forward five years: 2026 and 2027 is when they all reach MOP.

BusinessTimes : May 28, 2025

That means thousands of almost brand-new flats entering resale at once.

Now add the government’s plan to launch 50,000 new BTOs from 2025 to 2027.

You’re not just competing with your neighbour listing in the same block.
You’re competing with the entire Singapore resale pipeline.

Prices Don’t Plunge. They Soften, Quietly.

Don’t expect a headline that screams “HDB Market Crashing.” That’s not how it happens.

What you’ll feel instead are the signs already happening today:

A buyer views your flat, seems interested, even makes an offer… then ghosts.
The next offer you receive feels lower than expected.
Suddenly, you see five other listings in your block competing for the same buyers.

Listings On Propertyguru

We saw this exact pattern between 2017 and 2019, before Covid demand made the market look hot again. It wasn’t a crash. It was death by a thousand cuts: quiet competition, small compromises, sellers shaving expectations bit by bit.

Policy News is Good… But Not Everything.

Yes, removing the 15-month wait-out rule means private downgraders can come back into the market sooner. That’s positive.

But step back. Even with more downgraders, the sheer volume of resale supply is still larger than the bump in demand.

And when supply outweighs demand, your flat competes on four things:

Price
Layout
Location
Condition

Which means if you wait, you’re not just waiting for “better prices.” You’re waiting to be compared against a flood of newer flats, fresher layouts, and units that look more attractive on paper.

This Isn’t About Peaking. It’s About Planning.

Here’s the trap: many HDB sellers today are holding out for an extra $30K–40K.

But in chasing that, they risk losing their edge.

Because by 2026, when newer MOP flats hit resale, a 10-year-old unit in your estate will be competing head-to-head with a 5-year-old unit down the road. Buyers will naturally gravitate to the younger option, even if it costs a little more.

Look at the numbers: HDB resale prices in Q2 2025 only grew 0.9%. That’s the lowest quarterly growth since 2020. Momentum is already slowing.

Except from Herohomes Training Slides

If you’re thinking of upgrading to a bigger flat or a condo, the right move is to sell while there are still more buyers than sellers. Not when the wave of competition arrives.