You probably don’t remember 2017 to 2019.
Most people don’t.
But that period quietly reshaped Singapore’s property market — and the same setup is happening again.

Back then, HDB flats felt “safe.” Prices seemed stable, maybe even cheap.
Everyone thought, “Even if condo prices move, my flat won’t drop — so I’m fine.”
That’s the same sentence I’m hearing again today.

Here’s what actually happened.

Between 2017 and 2019, HDB resale prices fell about –1.5%, while private condos rose +30%.
Yes — while HDB owners were waiting for the right time, condo owners were quietly compounding wealth.

👉 Visual: Split screen — HDB flat line (–1.5%), Condo up arrow (+30%)

🧊 When Confidence in HDB Was Shaken

Incomes were rising. Interest rates were low. Inflation was calm.
Everything felt comfortable.

Then came 2018.

That was when the then-Minister for National Development reminded Singaporeans that HDB flats will eventually return to the state after 99 years.
One announcement — and suddenly, buyers got nervous.

Confidence in older HDB resale flats cracked.
Transactions slowed. Prices went sideways.

Meanwhile, older condos were quietly exploding in value.
En-bloc fever swept through the island — Laguna Park, Normanton Park, Park West — entire estates unlocking generational wealth.
Those who moved from HDB to private before the market heated up, doubled or tripled their gains.
Those who stayed behind? They got stuck in a cycle of “wait first, see how.”

⚙️ Fast Forward to 2025 — Déjà Vu All Over Again

This year, we got a new MND Minister, and I love how direct he’s been.
He’s not hinting. He’s literally telling us what’s coming.

🎥 Watch this segment

He announced:

• 55,000 new BTO flats to be launched between now and 2027.
  
• Close to 40,000 flats reaching MOP between now and 2028.

Even if just a quarter of those MOP flats are listed for sale, that’s 10,000–15,000 HDBs entering the resale market each year.

So while demand stays about the same, supply is about to spike.
That’s your crystal ball right there.
The government is showing us, in plain sight, that the next few years will be flooded with HDB supply.

📉 What That Means for Prices

When you have more BTOs being launched and more MOP flats entering resale, what happens?
Competition.

More options for buyers → downward pressure on resale prices.
Exactly the same dynamic that froze the HDB market in 2017-2019.

If you talk to anyone in their 40s or 50s who sold back then, they’ll tell you the same story:
“My house took months to move.”
“Buyers lowball like crazy.”
“Agents kept saying market quiet.”

But it wasn’t just quiet. It was oversupply.

🏗 Meanwhile… the Private Market Is Tightening

Let’s flip to condos.

In 2024, developers sold around 11,000 units.
In 2025, that number is projected to drop to 9,700 units — a 12% fall in supply.

So while HDB is loosening (more supply), the condo market is tightening (less supply).

If you remember your basic economics:

That imbalance is exactly what we saw before the last price divergence.

💣 The Real Trap: “As Long As My Price Doesn’t Drop, I’m Fine.”

That sentence has trapped thousands of HDB owners before.

They think holding is safe. But every year they “wait and see,” the gap between HDB and condo widens.
By the time they finally decide to upgrade, their CPF is locked, their age limits their loan tenure, and prices have sprinted ahead.

They didn’t lose money on paper — but they lost opportunity.
And in property, opportunity is everything.

Once that window closes, you spend your 50s and 60s saying, “Aiya, should’ve moved when it was easier.”

⚖️ What Smart Upgraders Are Doing Now

Some are moving from older HDBs into newer resale condos.
Some are leapfrogging straight to ECs.
Others are taking profit from their first private home and upgrading to bigger units or landed.

The key is — they’re not guessing.
They’re reading what’s already been announced.

Because this isn’t speculation.
The government is literally handing us the roadmap through supply numbers.

🧭 Final Thought

If you’ve been waiting for the stars to align — they already have.
But soon, they won’t.

By 2026-2027, as those 90,000 new flats hit the system, expect HDB resale prices to flatten or turn negative.
Meanwhile, private condos, constrained by limited supply, could quietly pull away again.

So before you say, “Let’s just wait and see,” remember — the last group who said that watched the train leave without them.

History may not repeat exactly.
But it’s rhyming loudly enough for those who are willing to listen.

And this time, the government didn’t just drop hints.
They gave us the crystal ball.
The question is — will you read it?