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Prices, volumes and the official indices, read the way an upgrader needs them. Every figure below pulls from HDB and URA data. No forecasts. Just what changed, and who it affects.
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What do these numbers mean for your own move? Run the Holding Power Calculator and see how long you could hold after the upgrade.
The official HDB index and volume, plus HeroHomes' own private resale index built from URA caveats. Each figure comes with what it means for an owner deciding whether to move.
| Quarter | HDB price index | HDB flats sold | Private resale index | Private units sold |
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Flash vs final. HDB and URA publish a flash estimate on the first working day after each quarter ends, from the sales recorded so far. The full figures follow about four weeks later. The badge at the top says which one you are looking at. It switches to Final on its own when the full data lands.
QoQ is the change from the previous quarter. YoY is the change from the same quarter one year ago. Both are percentages, not index points.
Past 4 qtrs shows the last four quarter-on-quarter changes, oldest to newest. One quarter can mislead. Four show whether the latest move continues a run or breaks it.
What the index level means. The HDB index is set to 100 at Q1 2009, so a reading of 200 means prices are double that level. The level matters less than the direction: three small dips in a row tell you more than any single number.
Volume swings are normal. Quarterly transaction counts move 15% to 25% on seasonality alone: launch timing, festive lulls, policy announcements. A big single-quarter swing in volume is not a price signal on its own.
The private resale line is a HeroHomes in-house model. URA's published index blends new launches with resale. Ours uses URA resale caveats only, median price per square foot rebased so Q3 2021 equals 100, so new launch pricing cannot move it. The newest quarter revises as late caveats lodge, so it holds at the last complete quarter until roughly three weeks after quarter end.
Policy changes, index releases and what they do to an upgrader's numbers. Written when something actually changes, not on a schedule.
HDB publishes how many flats are built. It does not publish when those flats actually reach the resale market. This tracks it from transaction records, block by block, so you can see the competition your flat will face when you sell.
Across 1,293 BTO blocks with leases starting 2013 to 2021, roughly one unit in eight changes hands in the first year resale is possible, and the first year carries most of the activity.
Every flat reaching MOP in your town is a competing listing, usually a younger flat with a longer lease. Check the year your estate's BTO cohorts reach MOP. Listing just before that wave, not into it, is the difference between a clean sale and six months of price cuts.
A big MOP year in a town means more choice and more sellers who need to move on, which is negotiating power. It also tells you which estates will have five-year-old flats with 94 years of lease left, the sweet spot for a later exit.
Your HDB sale funds the move. If your block's cohort reaches MOP alongside thousands of others, your proceeds face competition in the same months. The Holding Power maths should use the cautious price, not the hopeful one.
Send me your flat, your loan and your timeline. I will tell you honestly whether the data supports a move for someone in your position. It's not about what you can buy. It's about what is safe for you to buy.